Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on AvalonBay Communities Stock?
Arlington, Virginia-based AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) is a real estate investment trust focused on developing, acquiring, owning, and operating multi-family apartment communities. With a market cap of $27.6 billion, AvalonBay operates in markets like the New York metro area, New England, Southern California, and more.
The real estate major has significantly underperformed the broader market over the past year. AVB stock has plummeted 13.3% over the past 52 weeks and 12.6% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 14.3% surge over the past year and 9.5% return in 2025.
Narrowing the focus, AVB has also underperformed the industry-focused SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF’s (RWR) 5.2% decline over the past 52 weeks and a marginal 18 bps dip in 2025.
AvalonBay Communities’ stock prices declined 5.1% in the trading session following the release of its mixed Q2 results on Jul. 30. The company’s same-store residential revenue increased by 3%, while same-store expenses increased by 3.6%, which translated into a 2.7% year-over-year growth in same-store residential NOI to $477.2 million.
Meanwhile, AvalonBay's total revenues for the quarter increased by a notable 4.7% year-over-year to $760.2 million, but missed the Street expectations by 20 bps. Nevertheless, its core FFO (CFFO) inched up 2.4% year-over-year to $404 million, and CFFO per share of $2.82 surpassed the consensus estimates by 71 bps.
For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect AVB to deliver a CFFO of $11.39 per share, up 3.5% year-over-year. The company has a mixed FFO surprise history. While it surpassed the Street’s FFO estimates thrice over the past four quarters, it has missed the projections on one other occasion.
The stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the 24 analysts covering the AVB stock, opinions include seven “Strong Buys,” two “Moderate Buys,” and 15 “Holds.”
This configuration is slightly less optimistic than a month ago, when nine analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations.
On Aug. 18, Scotiabank analyst Nicholas Yulico maintained a “Sector Perform” rating on AVB and reduced the price target from $236 to $226.
As of writing, AVB’s mean price target of $219.96 represents a 14.4% premium to current price levels. Meanwhile, the Street-high target of $249 suggests a notable 29.5% upside potential.
On the date of publication, Aditya Sarawgi did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.