UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is facing downward pressure, 41.5% in the year to date with a big and down more than 30% in just the past month. Shares have also struggled in the longer term, down 43% over the past 52 weeks due to challenges in its Medicare Advantage business, including higher-than-expected patient utilization.

With several negative catalysts underway in 2025, shares were recently pushed to set a fresh five-year low. 

UnitedHealth Posts Disappointing Results

UnitedHealth Group posted its first-quarter results on April 17, reporting a profit of $6.29 billion. The figure can be translated to a profit of $7.20 per adjusted share which lagged behind analysts’ $7.27-per-share estimate. UnitedHealth generated $109.58 billion in revenue, again falling short of analysts’ $111.13 billion estimate.

The company's adjusted EBITDA was $10.56 billion, in line with estimates, while operating margin remained unchanged from 8.3% in the same quarter last year.

The medical care ratio increased to 84.8% from 84.3% due to negative revenue effects from Medicare funding reductions and higher senior care activity. 

“UnitedHealth Group grew to serve more people more comprehensively but did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead, and return to our long-term earnings growth rate target of 13 to 16%,” outoing CEO Andrew Witty said in the earnings release. 

The company anticipates full-year earnings between $26 and $26.50 per adjusted share, lower than its previous outlook. The company also announced that Witty would resign in a surprise move. 

One positive for investors is that UnitedHealth continues to pay a dividend. Its annual payout of $8.43 currently yields 2.83%, and the company has increased its dividends for the past 15 years. 

Fresh DOJ Probe

UnitedHealth Group got another kick after the Wall Street Journal reported in mid-May that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating the company for potential Medicare fraud. The company denies any notification of a criminal probe and calls the report “irresponsible.” The Guardian has also since reported that the company allegedly made payments to nursing homes to reduce hospitalizations. 

Additionally, government scrutiny on drug pricing, including President Donald Trump’s push to lower prescription costs, has triggered instability. The 2024 assassination of CEO Brian Thompson intensified public scrutiny of the company’s insurance coverage practices.

UnitedHealth’s stock performance in 2025 has been the worst in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX). 

Analyst Ratings on UNH Stock 

Despite these troubles, the stock is still rated a “Strong Buy” by analysts. Its average price target of $392.59 implies more than 30% upside from here. 

However, investors should note that its aggregate rating has dropped from 4.92 out of 5 three months ago to 4.42 out of 5 today. Of the 24 analysts who cover the stock, 16 give it a “Strong Buy” rating, two give it a “Moderate Buy” rating, and six give it a “Hold” rating.