Coffee Prices Hit a 5-Week Low on Higher Supply Fears. How to Trade It.

September ICE coffee (KCU25) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness.
See on the daily bar chart for September ICE coffee futures that prices are trending down and Friday hit a five-week low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is also in a bearish posture as the red MACD line is below the blue trigger line and both are trending down. The bears have the near-term technical advantage.
Fundamentally, rains in Brazil coffee regions are easing dryness concerns. Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer. There are now market expectations for a better 2025/26 coffee harvest in Brazil. More offtake from coffee-producing countries like Vietnam is also bearish for coffee futures prices. More of a risk-off trader and investor mentality in the general marketplace recently has been a negative for most raw commodity futures markets’ prices, including coffee.
A move in September coffee futures prices below chart support at 350.00 cents would become a selling opportunity. The downside price objective would be 275.00 cents, or below. Technical resistance, for which to place a protective buy stop just above, is located at 385.00 cents.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.