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FUTURES

NEWS

06/12/2025     

Thursday trade ended up being mostly quiet in the corn and soybean markets on Thursday, as the supply and demand update from the USDA failed to offer much of anything for either the bulls or the bears to sink their teeth into. The markets will now go back to focusing on weather for the most part, with Mother Nature likely having the largest impact on price direction over the next few months. 

CORN

• This morning's weekly export sales report for the week ending June 5th showed corn sales in the week at the lower end of trade expectations in the old crop at 791k MT's, while new crop sales were a negative 30k MT's on cancelations from unknown; Japan took 376,200 MT's in the week, while Mexico booked 164,400 MT's and Colombia booked 142,500 MT's. Unknown destinations assigned out/rolled/canceled 164,600 MT's.

• CONAB released updated monthly production estimates this morning; the numbers showed safrinha production up more than 1 MMT from last month at 01 MMTs, while total corn production was also up notably to 128.25 MMTs. USDA pegged total production today at 130.0 MMTs.

• USDA expectedly did not make a lot of changes to either the old or new crop corn balance sheets in their monthly update this morning. The report showed old crop exports up 50 mil bu from last month to 650 bil bu which subsequently lowered both old and new crop carryout, but this was the only change on the corn balance sheet.

 USDA raised old crop corn exports by 50 mil bu in their update this morning, but this was generally less than the trade had expected and is still viewed by some as being too low. The acreage debate will again come into focus as we approach the end of June, with the quarterly stocks and acreage report at the end of the month now the next major new crop supply update. Aside from this, price direction will be all about weather and fund positioning, much the same as it has been for the past several weeks. 

BEANS

• Soybean sales in this morning's weekly report were disappointing at just 61k MT's in the old crop and 58k MT's in the new crop; unknown destinations assigned out/cancelled/rolled 260,700 MT's in the old crop, while Indonesia took 69,400 MT's and Egypt took 58,500 MT's.

• CONAB also updated soybean production estimates this morning in their monthly report, and now see total production for 2024/25 at 61 MMT's, which is up from the 168.34 seen last month. USDA pegged production today at 169.0 MMT's.

• Also not a lot notable from WASDE on the soybean side, as there were no balance sheet adjustments of any kind for either the old crop or the new crop. At the world level, ending stocks were raised slightly to 3 MMT's; there were no production adjustments made in Argentina or Brazil, and there was also no adjustment made to China's imports.

 Secondary to the WASDE and CONAB reports this morning was RVO news out of the White House/EPA that quietly lingered in the background all day. The initial news, taken as positive as we'd finally be getting a number, rallied bean oil futures at first, but then as word got out that the number would be less than desired, prices turned back around and traded to fairly sizeable losses by the end of the day. Headline risk will be elevated to wrap up the week, as its also unknown at this point whether or not to expect additional headlines regarding the China situation. 

WHEAT

• Like corn and beans, this morning's WASDE report offered little of note for the wheat market. Old crop ending stocks were unchanged from May at 841 mil bu, while new crop stocks were down 25 mil bu on a 25 mil bu increase in exports. The avg farm price was also raised 10 cents to $5.40/bu.

• On the production side, there were very minor class-specific adjustments made, but the all wheat production figure was unchanged from last month at 921 bil bu

Wheat futures dropped back to the lower end of the June trading range today, as a lack of bullish input from the USDA and the early onset of US harvest led values to decline throughout the session. Further improvements in weather forecasts across Canada and China have also pressured values this week, with the market just simply not having a lot of anything positive to grasp hold of.

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WEATHER