Thursday saw yet another day of quietly choppy trade across the CBOT ag space, with mostly lower closes being paced by declines in both the soybean and soybean oil markets throughout the session. Rather than there being anything new go on that was worth talking about during the day, most of the chatter for Thursday focused on the things that didn't happen, which included the October WASDE update and this morning's weekly export sales report. While the ongoing lack of information may or may not have had an impact on the overall fundamental landscape in the row crop markets, it has clearly had an impact on the attention being paid to them, as traders just don't have much of any reason to try and execute any sort of sizeable positions.

🌽 Corn Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Corn (CZ): $4.18 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents
• March Corn (CH): $4.34, down 3 3/4 cents
• December/March Spread (CZ/CH): -15 3/4, unchanged

📋 Market Headlines:

• Though this is becoming a more feeble exercise as the weeks go on, had this morning's trade estimates for the weekly export sales report for the week ending October 2nd been accurate, total 2025/26 corn sales would stand somewhere between 28.2 and 29.8 MMTs, which in any case, would be a new record; at the high end, this would be up some 70% from last year, and at the low end it would be up more than 60%.

Summary:

News continues to be slow across the whole of the ag space, but also in the corn market, where the absence of demand data has given traders very little to be interested in. Corn yields at a national average of 180.0 or 185.0 are a new record either way, and it will be demand that ignites a rally from here if one were to occur just based on fundamentals in the US. That said, we don't know that the market much cares at this point whether yields are 180 or 185 or if demand stays strong, but instead see it as likely being more concerned about whether Brazil and Argentina are going to pump out another round of record crops again this year, which as we've begun eluding to in recent days, is probably the most dominant driver of price over the next 3-4 months.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

📈 Prices:

• November Soybeans (SX): $10.22 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents
• January Soybeans (SF): $10.38 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; inside day lower
• December Soybean Meal (MZ): $276.90, down $1.10/ton; inside day lower
• December Soybean Oil (LZ): 50.94, down 0.54 cents/lb; outside day lower
• November/January Spread (SX/SF): -16 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

📋 Market Headlines:

• Like with corn, we are not going to tout this as accurate, but using trade guesses in place of the actual report would should show cumulative 2025/26 soybean sales as of the week ending October 2nd somewhere between 11.9 and 14.2 MMTs; in any case, the figure would be the lowest of the last 20 years, with the high end being down 28% from last year and the low end being down 40% from last year.

• President Trump told reporters again on Thursday that he hoped to raise the issue of soybean trade with his Chinese counterpart at their scheduled meeting at the end of the month, adding that the US may be forced to halt a bulk of the imports it takes from China if trade relations do not improve. Again, this rhetoric does not to us appear indicative of progress being made between the two sides.

Summary:

The soy complex saw lower trade across the board on Thursday, with bean oil actually being down a little more than the beans themselves on a percentage basis. We didn't see a lot of news throughout the day to drive oil values lower, but would note that market traded to a new three-week high first this morning before rolling over and drifting lower throughout the rest of the day beyond mid-morning. Otherwise, we also find it notable that headlines with the words 'Trump, 'soybeans' and 'China' popped up again today but did not see much of any market reaction, perhaps indicating that traders have become a bit more conditioned to not react so rapidly to headlines that don't necessarily mean or change anything. Trump can say whatever he wants for the next three weeks, as long as he and Xi actually sit down and talk, it is the result of this conversation that will far outweigh anything he says between now and then.

🌾 Wheat Market Update

📈 Prices:

• December Chicago Wheat (WZ): $5.06 1/2, down 3/4 cent
• March Chicago Wheat (WH): $5.24, down 1 1/4 cents
• December/March Spread (WZ/WH): -17 1/2, up 1/2 cent

📋 Market Headlines:

• The Rosario Grain Exchange said late in the day yesterday that Argentina's wheat harvest in 2025/26 could possibly reach upwards of 23 MMTs, which would tie its best producing year ever, and would also be up from a previous estimate of 20 MMTs.

• Russia's Deputy Ag Minister said on Thursday that the country would likely reduce its spring and winter wheat planted area this year by around 6% to 28.2 MMTs, as farmers switch to more oilseeds due to high export taxes on wheat and low global prices.

• According to a release from China's state planner on Thursday, the country is set to leave its wheat import quota for 2026 unchanged from 2025 at 9.64 MMTs. Import quotas for corn and rice were also unchanged at 7.2 MMTs and 5.32 MMTs respectively.

Summary:

Wheat futures traded higher for most of the day session on Thursday before rolling over the last 30-45 minutes or so into the close on what was another slow day throughout all three classes. News of higher production prospects in Argentina was somewhat offset by Russian headlines indicating lower planted area next year due to poor profitability, which kept values near unchanged by the end of the day.